Fewer Murders in United States Now Than in 1901, Based on Population

Someone has estimated that there are 30 murders committed in the United States every day. More than one every hour. This is certainly shocking to contemplate.

From the Watauga Democrat, April 25, 1901

The CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics says that in 2018 there were 19,141 homicides in the United States. The 1901 figure from the Watauga Democrat was 30 per day, which would be 10,950 per year. Can you simply compare these two numbers and say people were almost twice as likely to be murdered in 2018 than in 1901? That wouldn’t be an accurate statement because the United States had many more people in 2018 than in 1901. According to the 1900 U.S. Census, there were 76,212,168 people in the United States. The Census Bureau estimated that the country’s population in 2018 was 327,200,000. So the population of the United States has more than quadrupled and the number of homicides has almost doubled. But can we be sure of the number of homicides in 1901? The story says “someone has estimated,” so we can’t be sure of the accuracy of that figure.